What do the Numbers tell Us?

As promised, this is the first in a series of analyses of polling data and patterns during the 2013 Elections. I obtained the data from IEBC’s website (http://www.kenyaelections.com/wp-content/uploads/SUMMARY-OF-2013-PRESIDENTIAL-RESULTS-DECLARED-ON-9_3_2013.pdf). As most statisticians/data analysts will tell you, if you torture the data long enough it will tell you what you want to hear! With that said, a few interesting points stand out:

1. At the risk of stating the obvious, Mr. Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party received 6,173,433 vs. 5,340,546 for Mr. Odinga’s CORD Party.
2. Kenya’s 2013 vote map looks like America’s 2012 vote map albeit along tribal/regional lines with Mandera in Kenya’s north-east mimicking Alaska in America’s north-west as a Jubilee enclave in the CORD dominated Eastern/Coastal region of Kenya, to wit, Jubilee’s appeal among voters was concentrated in the central region of the country. CORD’s appeal was more spread out – http://geocurrents.info/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Kenya-2013-Election-Map.png.
a. Jubilee got almost 60% of its votes from one region – Central. CORD got just over 50% of its votes from four regions – Eastern, Nairobi, Nyanza and Western.
b. Of the 291 constituencies that voted, 157 (54%) voted for CORD vs. 134 (46%) for Jubilee. Note: The 291 includes votes from the Diaspora who voted 52.5% vs. 41% in favor of CORD.
3. Nairobi County voted in favor of CORD: 691,156 (49.4%) vs. 659,490 (47.2%).
4. Mombasa County, another “diverse” metropolitan voted 70.5% vs. 24.1% in favor of CORD.

Top 20 Counties (vote totals)

Uhuru/Ruto
1. Kiambu – 705,185
2. Nakuru – 494,239
3. Muranga – 406,334
4. Nairobi – 404,366
5. Meru – 384,290
6. Nyeri – 318,880
7. Kericho – 238,556
8. Nyandarua – 232,808
9. Kirinyaga – 231,868
10. Uasin Gishu – 211,438
11. Bomet – 210,501
12. Nandi – 192,587
13. Embu – 177,676
14. Kajiado – 138,851
15. Baringo – 134,488
16. Laikipia – 134,111
17. Tharaka – 128,397
18. Elgeyo Marakwet – 113,680
19. Narok – 109,413
20. West Pokot – 79,772

 Raila/Musyoka
1. Nairobi – 441,298
2. Kisumu – 337,232
3. Machakos – 319,594
4. Homa Bay – 303,447
5. Kakamega – 303,120
6. Siaya – 284,031
7. Kisii – 236,831
8. Makueni – 228,843
9. Migori – 225,645
10. Kitui – 219,588
11. Mombasa – 189,985
12. Busia – 185,419
13. Kilifi – 182,708
14. Nyamira – 121,590
15. Narok – 118,623
16. Kajiado – 117,856
17. Nakuru – 105,660
18. Kwale – 101,407
19. Trans Nzoia – 92,035
20. Vihiga – 77,825
Thoughts? Comments??
Stay tuned for more analyses

© [WashingtonM.Osiro] and [http://thetwoninetyonetracker.com], [2013]. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to [WashingtonM.Osiro] and [http://thetwoninetyonetracker.com] with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

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